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Legal experts who spoke with Newsweek claim that former President Donald Trump may lose the election as a result of his nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. Trump had already begun his campaigning in what was expected to be a close race. But the outlet asserted that because Vice President Kamala Harris is now leading the Democratic ticket and the Dobbs ruling is still in force, the Republican nominee’s chances of winning a second term may be at risk.
Trump’s appointment of Justice Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court cemented the conservative supermajority. This conservative six-judge majority ultimately overturned Roe v. Wade with its 2022 Dobbs decision.
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Newsweek reported that the rollback on reproductive rights ignited a national outcry following the Supreme Court ruling. However, it was over the subsequent two years that voters made their displeasure with the court’s conservative justices clear. At the ballot box, even in deeply conservative states, voters overwhelmingly rejected amendments challenging the right to an abortion while strongly supporting those that codified that right into law. In November, it was noted that it would be Trump’s turn to face these angry voters.
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Lanae Erickson, Senior Vice President for Social Policy, Education, and Politics at Third Way, shared with Newsweek that in a closely contested election, any issue could potentially be decisive. However, she suggested that the Dobbs decision might carry the greatest significance.
Erickson observed that every time abortion rights have been on the ballot since the Dobbs decision, voters have sided with reproductive freedom, and Democrats have overperformed. However, he acknowledged that other factors—such as frustration with Trump, a lack of enthusiasm for GOP candidates, and others—might have also played a significant role in influencing voters.
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Political expert Steve Schier explained that the key areas where abortion will impact educated female voters are the affluent suburbs of major cities in swing states. These include suburban Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Milwaukee, Madison, Atlanta, Phoenix, and Las Vegas, as he shared with the outlet
Schier predicts that Harris stands to gain more from the abortion controversy in urban swing seats. The 2020 Census designates Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, and Pennsylvania as urban swing states.
Strategist Jay Townsend informed the outlet that if Harris wins in November, reproductive freedom will be one of the reasons why. Townsend stated that the only way pro-choice voters can achieve their goals is by voting for Harris, noting that many believe Trump took that right away with his Supreme Court picks. He added that pro-choice voters represent a larger group than fervent pro-life voters, concluding that the math works in favor of Harris but not for Trump.
In the meanwhile, bogus claims about Trump’s stance on the matter have been made repeatedly by Harris and Democrats. Trump has repeatedly stated that he opposes a federal ban on abortion because he thinks the Supreme Court made the appropriate decision in 1973 when it returned the matter to the states where it was settled. Additionally, polling indicates that he agrees with the majority of Americans when it comes to his support for a 15-week abortion limit.
Nonetheless, numerous surveys indicate that under the Biden-Harris administration, the vast majority of Americans place a far higher priority on their wealth and the economy. A recent survey found that about 40% of Americans worry about not being able to pay all of their payments on time, which is a larger percentage than during the Great Recession of 2008–2009.
According to a CNN poll, 39% of Americans worry about consistently paying their payments. This is higher than the 37% who expressed similar concerns during the 2008 financial crisis, when unemployment was close to 10%, and represents a 33% increase from the peak of Bidenflation.
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